Over the last few days $BTC price action looked confusing on purpose. Volatility, wicks, and mixed signals made it hard to force a clean bias. That phase is normal. What matters now is how short-term structure, trading data, and higher‑timeframe trend align.

Short-term structure (2h)

Source: https://in.tradingview.com/chart/peOjf9dh/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

On the 2h chart, BTC is trading inside a tight range with repeated long wicks on both sides. This is not organic trend movement. It is macro-driven and liquidation-driven. Liquidity is clearly stacked below $84.5k–$86k, where most long liquidations sit, and above $95k–$96k, where short liquidations begin. Until one side is fully cleared and accepted, price action will continue to expand with wicks rather than direction.

Trading Data Confirmation

Source: https://coinglass.com

Derivatives data supports this view. Open interest has cooled roughly 3–5% from the recent local peak, which shows leverage is being reduced, not added. Funding rates remain near flat, meaning neither longs nor shorts are aggressively positioned. Liquidations are controlled, mostly hitting weak longs without any sign of panic or capitulation. The long/short ratio stays around 65–70% long, indicating a bullish bias but no stress. This environment reflects a leverage reset, not distribution and not a confirmed breakout.

Macro events deciding short-term direction

The next short-term move is driven by macro, not technicals alone.

1. Jobs data (Dec 16) typically creates the first volatility expansion and liquidity sweep, as it directly affects risk sentiment.

2. CPI (Dec 18) is the event that usually decides direction.

Current expectations suggest no major inflation shock. Headline CPI is expected in the low 3% range, while core CPI sits around the mid‑3% area, broadly in line with previous prints. Bond yields remain stable, the dollar is calm, and options positioning shows balanced hedging rather than aggressive short exposure. This indicates the market is not positioned for a hot CPI upside surprise.

That setup slightly favors upside resolution after liquidity is cleared, rather than a sustained breakdown — unless CPI prints materially hotter than expected.

Higher‑timeframe view (weekly)

Source: https://in.tradingview.com/chart/peOjf9dh/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

On the weekly chart, BTC remains in a broader bullish structure. Price is consolidating after a strong impulse move, holding above key higher‑timeframe support. This is not a distribution pattern. It is a high‑timeframe consolidation inside an uptrend. As long as weekly structure holds, downside moves are more likely to act as liquidity events rather than trend reversals.

Verdict

Short term, $BTC is in a liquidity‑driven phase controlled by macro catalysts. The higher‑timeframe trend remains bullish.

Bias: bullish after a liquidity sweep.

Upside continuation requires acceptance above $95k–$96k with follow‑through. A clean breakdown and acceptance below $84.5k would invalidate this view.

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