Quick Briefing
- Here's the scoop: Despite all the "Crypto Winter 2.0" chatter, the data says we're actually in a deep market reset and base-building phase, not a full-blown, long-term bear market. Think cooling off and getting ready for the next move, rather than a total collapse.
- This is huge because it means experienced players are absorbing supply, leverage has been flushed, and capital is mostly parked, not fleeing. We're in a period where Bitcoin could stabilize or even start recovering once internal market conditions are fully repaired, even if macro isn't perfect, making it a potential accumulation zone.
- But don't get too comfy. We need to watch out for a sustained drop below Bitcoin's 200-week moving average (around mid-$50k), long-term holders actually capitulating, or a significant outflow of stablecoin capital. If any of those happen, the "winter" narrative could get real.
The phrase “Crypto Winter 2.0” has rapidly become the dominant narrative across crypto communities. Given recent price weakness and fading momentum, the concern is understandable. However, market regimes are not defined by emotion. They are defined by structure, positioning, liquidity, and behavior.
When these variables are examined together, the current environment looks less like the beginning of a new winter and more like a broad, uncomfortable reset inside a larger cycle.
Price Structure: Weak, But Not Structurally Broken
Bitcoin continues to trade above its 200-week moving average, currently around the mid–$50k region, while spot price holds in the mid–$60k range. Historically, prolonged trading below this level has been a defining feature of true crypto winters. That condition has not occurred.
At the same time, price remains far below Pi Cycle Top bands and well under the 2-Year moving average multiplier that has historically marked cycle euphoria. Monthly structure shows compression rather than collapse.
This configuration points to cooling and stabilization rather than structural failure.
Valuation: Compressed, Not Overheated
The MVRV Z-Score is near 0.3. Historically, values below 1 have aligned with undervaluation zones where price trades close to realized value. These zones typically appear near late bear phases and early accumulation periods.
The Puell Multiple is around 0.69, indicating miner revenue remains below historical norms. Similar conditions in previous cycles have coincided with bottoming or early recovery phases rather than the onset of prolonged bear markets.
Valuation metrics suggest compression, not excess.
Leverage: The Excess Has Already Been Removed
When price declines alongside collapsing open interest, it reflects forced position closures and deleveraging rather than aggressive new short positioning.
Funding Rates: No Dominant Positioning
Major cycle tops require sustained positive funding driven by speculative excess. Severe winter cascades typically involve extended deeply negative funding.
Long-Term Holders: No Capitulation Signal
Coins continue to migrate into long-duration holding cohorts, suggesting experienced participants are absorbing supply rather than distributing it.
Stablecoin Market Capitalization: Capital Has Not Left Crypto
Total stablecoin supply remains elevated despite recent price weakness. Composition is rotating between USDT and USDC, but aggregate supply is not contracting.
Macro Backdrop: Restrictive, But Stable
Accelerating tightening tends to break risk assets. Plateauing restrictive conditions tend to produce consolidation.
Combined Signal
What Would Confirm Crypto Winter 2.0
Final Take: Where the Market Stands
About Meow Alert
Crypto analyst and researcher with 13k+ followers on Binance Square. Focused on on-chain data and market structure.